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On his last statement for the Sunday Referendum, on Friday 03/07, Alexis Tsipras emphasized on the IMF’s report for Greece’s dept, that was finally revealed by the Internationay Monetary Fund officialy, after it was leaked when it had been provided to the German MP’s by the German Parliament
“Yesterday an event of major political importance happened,” Tsipras said. “The IMF published a report on Greece’s economy which is…”
…” great vindication for the Greek government as it confirms the obvious – that Greek debt is not sustainable.”
The fund published a draft of its latest analysis of Greece’s public debt yesterday, detailing a litany of factors that “render the debt dynamics unsustainable.” That’s a bureaucratic way of saying that there’s no chance that the country’s lenders will ever be repaid in full, commented the Quarz on Thursay, under the title Cant Pay, won’t pay
The International Monetary Fund conceded a point on Thursday that the Athens government has long been making, the NYT on Friday, 02/07 wrote :
Without some reduction in the country’s staggering debt load, Greece has little hope of a sustained economic recovery.
The report is likely to stoke tensions with Greece’s European creditors at a critical moment, just ahead of a Greek national referendum on Sunday over whether to accept a bailout package that Mr. Tsipras has opposed — in part because it does not contain debt relief. By essentially concluding that any new bailout deal for Greece must include debt relief, the I.M.F., whether intentionally or not, turned up the pressure on Europe to acknowledge that point, the NYT wrote on July 3. lose
Varoufakis: the Close the Banks blackmail
“They have Closed our banks as to blackmail the Greeks for a Yes to a deal without dept restructuring, while dept is definitely not sustainable”
This is was what the “Take it or Leave it” Ultimatum for Greece was about, handled by President Tusk, said Yiannis Varoufakis,talking on the State Televion News, on July 1, hours after a leak of an IMF document to a German newspaper that was proving, indeed, that Greece’s dept was admitted not to be sustainable
A senior I.M.F. official said the organization released the report Thursday because elements of it were leaking out.. This was what the leaked document was saying
Even if Greece accepted all of the austerity measures demanded by its main creditors, the Troika, it still would not be able to make ends meet by 2030,
according to IMF estimates revealed in a set of documents obtained by a German newspaper.
The most optimistic scenario shows that Greece would face an unsustainable debt in 2030 even if it agreed to the package of tax increases and spending cuts proposed by the European commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF in exchange for a five-month €15.5bn loan from its creditors.
These prospects were outlined in six documents that were part of the “final” proposal offered to Greece by the three main creditors on Friday. The papers were obtained by the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung and seen by The Guardian.
The estimates provide support for Greece’s decision not to accept the bailout deal. They prove that for Greece to survive economically, it needs real debt relief measures, not austerity reforms.
According to the IMF, Greece would be unable to sustain a debt level of 118% of GDP. In 2012, the organization said that 110% of GDP is the highest debt threshold the country could take on.
Currently the country’s debt level amounts to 175% of GDP, and that percentage could easily rise if the country were to slip into recession.
The documents stressed that
even if Greece posted stellar economic growth for 15 years, the debt level would still be higher than 110% of GDP,
adding that Greece had no chance of meeting that target.
Even if the economy managed to maintain a growth rate of 4% a year for the next five years, the national debt level would only decline to 124%.
“It is clear that the policy slippages and uncertainties of the last months have made the achievement of the 2012 targets impossible under any scenario,”
one of six secret documents, titled the Preliminary Debt Sustainability Analysis for Greece, stated.
There are also mentions of much needed “significant concessions,” but no specifics are revealed.
The files were reportedly sent to all German MPs for review and approval, but were never voted on since Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras rejected the proposal and called for a referendum.
Other documents reveal further details about the proposed deal.
For example, there is a description of how Greece would eventually gain access to €15 billion. The plan was to consist of five separate tranches beginning as soon as June.
They were said to cover Greece’s immediate financing needs, with 93% of the money going towards paying the cost of maturing debt.
Other details were about reforms Greece should be forced to implement if it were to accept the proposal.
The debate over pension reforms was particularly heated. The documents show that the three creditors wanted substantial reform, including changes to early retirement penalties and the phasing out the solidarity grant (EKAS).
Late on Tuesday evening, Greece became the first developed country to default on its international obligations, after the IMF confirmed that it had failed to receive the €1.5 billion debt payment from Athens that was due by the end of June 30.
IMF spokesman Gerry Rice said in a statement that Greece had asked for a payment extension earlier on Tuesday and that the Fund’s board would consider it “in due course.”
This was largely expected by the markets. Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis had warned earlier that Greece would not be able to make its IMF debt payment on time.
…”In fact, European leaders are finally beginning to reveal the true nature of the ongoing debt dispute, and the answer is not pleasant: it is about power and democracy much more than money and economics.
It’s not about the money, said Columbia Business School’s resident Nobel laureate. It’s about forcing Greece to buckle under.”
It is hard to advise Greeks how to vote on 5 July. Neither alternative – approval or rejection of the troika’s terms – will be easy, and both carry huge risks. A yes vote would mean depression almost without end. Perhaps a depleted country – one that has sold off all of its assets, and whose bright young people have emigrated – might finally get debt forgiveness; perhaps, having shrivelled into a middle-income economy, Greece might finally be able to get assistance from the World Bank. All of this might happen in the next decade, or perhaps in the decade after that.
By contrast, a no vote would at least open the possibility that Greece, with its strong democratic tradition, might grasp its destiny in its own hands. Greeks might gain the opportunity to shape a future that, though perhaps not as prosperous as the past, is far more hopeful than the unconscionable torture of the present.
I know how I would vote.