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How Creditos knew the FUTURE IMPOSSIBLE MADE FOR #GREECE, and the confessed #GreekFiasco

On his last statement for the Sunday Referendum, on Friday 03/07, Alexis Tsipras emphasized on the IMF’s report for Greece’s dept, that was finally revealed by the Internationay Monetary Fund officialy, after it was leaked when it had been provided to the German MP’s by the German Parliament

“Yesterday an event of major political importance happened,” Tsipras said. “The IMF published a report on Greece’s economy which is…”

…” great vindication for the Greek government as it confirms the obvious – that Greek debt is not sustainable.”

The fund published a draft of its latest analysis of Greece’s public debt yesterday, detailing a litany of factors that “render the debt dynamics unsustainable.” That’s a bureaucratic way of saying that there’s no chance that the country’s lenders will ever be repaid in full, commented the Quarz on Thursay, under the title Cant Pay, won’t pay

The International Monetary Fund conceded a point on Thursday that the Athens government has long been making, the NYT on Friday, 02/07 wrote :

Without some reduction in the country’s staggering debt load, Greece has little hope of a sustained economic recovery.

The report is likely to stoke tensions with Greece’s European creditors at a critical moment, just ahead of a Greek national referendum on Sunday over whether to accept a bailout package that Mr. Tsipras has opposed — in part because it does not contain debt relief. By essentially concluding that any new bailout deal for Greece must include debt relief, the I.M.F., whether intentionally or not, turned up the pressure on Europe to acknowledge that point, the NYT wrote on July 3. lose

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Varoufakis: the Close the Banks blackmail

“They have Closed our banks as to blackmail the Greeks for a Yes to a deal without dept restructuring, while dept is definitely not sustainable”

This is was what the “Take it or Leave it” Ultimatum for Greece was about, handled by President Tusk, said Yiannis Varoufakis,talking on the State Televion News, on July 1, hours after a leak of an IMF document to a German newspaper that was proving, indeed, that Greece’s dept was admitted not to be sustainable

CI8qyS_UEAAz3G5the IMF leaked document provided to the German MPs

A senior I.M.F. official said the organization released the report Thursday because elements of it were leaking out.. This was what the leaked document was saying

Even if Greece accepted all of the austerity measures demanded by its main creditors, the Troika, it still would not be able to make ends meet by 2030,

according to IMF estimates revealed in a set of documents obtained by a German newspaper.

The most optimistic scenario shows that Greece would face an unsustainable debt in 2030 even if it agreed to the package of tax increases and spending cuts proposed by the European commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF in exchange for a five-month €15.5bn loan from its creditors.

These prospects were outlined in six documents that were part of the “final” proposal offered to Greece by the three main creditors on Friday. The papers were obtained by the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung and seen by The Guardian.

The estimates provide support for Greece’s decision not to accept the bailout deal. They prove that for Greece to survive economically, it needs real debt relief measures, not austerity reforms.

According to the IMF, Greece would be unable to sustain a debt level of 118% of GDP. In 2012, the organization said that 110% of GDP is the highest debt threshold the country could take on.

Currently the country’s debt level amounts to 175% of GDP, and that percentage could easily rise if the country were to slip into recession.

The documents stressed that

even if Greece posted stellar economic growth for 15 years, the debt level would still be higher than 110% of GDP,

adding that Greece had no chance of meeting that target.

Even if the economy managed to maintain a growth rate of 4% a year for the next five years, the national debt level would only decline to 124%.

“It is clear that the policy slippages and uncertainties of the last months have made the achievement of the 2012 targets impossible under any scenario,”

one of six secret documents, titled the Preliminary Debt Sustainability Analysis for Greece, stated.

There are also mentions of much needed “significant concessions,” but no specifics are revealed.

The files were reportedly sent to all German MPs for review and approval, but were never voted on since Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras rejected the proposal and called for a referendum.

Other documents reveal further details about the proposed deal.

For example, there is a description of how Greece would eventually gain access to €15 billion. The plan was to consist of five separate tranches beginning as soon as June.

They were said to cover Greece’s immediate financing needs, with 93% of the money going towards paying the cost of maturing debt.

Other details were about reforms Greece should be forced to implement if it were to accept the proposal.

The debate over pension reforms was particularly heated. The documents show that the three creditors wanted substantial reform, including changes to early retirement penalties and the phasing out the solidarity grant (EKAS).

Late on Tuesday evening, Greece became the first developed country to default on its international obligations, after the IMF confirmed that it had failed to receive the €1.5 billion debt payment from Athens that was due by the end of June 30.

IMF spokesman Gerry Rice said in a statement that Greece had asked for a payment extension earlier on Tuesday and that the Fund’s board would consider it “in due course.”

This was largely expected by the markets. Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis had warned earlier that Greece would not be able to make its IMF debt payment on time.

Greek hand 252x252the Nobelist Stiglitz:  “It is Europe’s attack on Greek Democracy”

…”In fact, European leaders are finally beginning to reveal the true nature of the ongoing debt dispute, and the answer is not pleasant: it is about power and democracy much more than money and economics.

It’s not about the money, said Columbia Business School’s resident Nobel laureate. It’s about forcing Greece to buckle under.”

It is hard to advise Greeks how to vote on 5 July. Neither alternative – approval or rejection of the troika’s terms – will be easy, and both carry huge risks. A yes vote would mean depression almost without end. Perhaps a depleted country – one that has sold off all of its assets, and whose bright young people have emigrated – might finally get debt forgiveness; perhaps, having shrivelled into a middle-income economy, Greece might finally be able to get assistance from the World Bank. All of this might happen in the next decade, or perhaps in the decade after that.

By contrast, a no vote would at least open the possibility that Greece, with its strong democratic tradition, might grasp its destiny in its own hands. Greeks might gain the opportunity to shape a future that, though perhaps not as prosperous as the past, is far more hopeful than the unconscionable torture of the present.

I know how I would vote.

Joseph E. Stiglitz

the #greekfiasco confessed

(from our earlier story on greek2m.org)

by pointing to two articles,  Bloomberg View columnist Clive Crook, shed light on late June to the other view of Greek drama, Grexit and Greek dept: to the Greek fiasco:

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde has the nerve to call for “adults in the room,” as though she finds this all rather trying and her patience is finally wearing thin, wrote Karl Whelan, a professor of economics at University College Dublin, who crisply explains, underlined Clive Crook,  why it’s wrong to blame Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and Syriza for the mess.

[S]he seems to have forgotten that the IMF were supposed to be the adults in the room for discussions on Greece from 2010 onwards. But rather than adopt an approach consistent with their usual policies, the European-led IMF decided that European countries deserved the opportunity to be saddled with particularly high burdens of debt to the official sector.

Europe, it turns out, has gained very little from European influence at the top of the IMF. The rest of the world should learn from the Greek fiasco that former European politicians can no longer be trusted with the leadership of this crucial institution.

Since Takis Rouliotis revealed in Parliament the Greek dept unsustainable by the IMF reports, It took less than one month for the IMF to publicly confess it, -after five years of bleeding austerity and five months of negotiations made impossible for Tsipras govt –

How ,When and Why the IMF report for the unsustainable of the Greek dept was started to be revealed

(from our earlier story on greek2m.org)

Panayiotis Roumeliotis, Greece’s former envoy to the IMF during the critical years of IMF memorandum, said on the public hearing before the “Debt Truth” Committee in the Greek Parliament on Monday June 17, that according to official IMF report, Greece’s debt was “obviously shown not to be  sustainable”.. “and so its board had to change its Statute to be able to fund the country”

“They made wrong calculations and overly optimistic estimations,” Roumeliotis  told the committee, adding that “responsibility weights not only on our country, which didn’t do what should have been done, but also our partners.”

“If debt restructuring had taken place then [in May 2010], the ‘haircut’ needed would be just 30 pct … which would provide some breathing space to the Greek economy and wouldn’t require a violent fiscal adjustment,” he added.

” But  there were secret meetings on that period of 2010, Panagioti Rouleotis revealed, between Germany’s and France’s top Banking Heads and the IMF, in order to delay Greece’s debt restructuring, as it was oficially revealed by then to the IMF executives, Roumeliotis said , so as  the two countries’ Banking economy to be saved, but not the Greece’s economy, at all”…

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#UN welcomes #Greferendum: “A State’s sovereignty cannot be trumped by outside actors”

by @Piratenpartij

Some leaders have expressed dissatisfaction with the idea of holding a referendum in Greece, wrote UN experts on June 30, 2015

Why? they ask, adding that  “Referenda are in the best traditions of democratic governance.”

It is disappointing that the IMF and the EU have failed to reach a solution that does not require additional retrogressive austerity measures

Any agreement that would require such a violation of human rights and customary   international law is contra bonos mores and hence null and void pursuant to Art. 53 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties.

 

30 June 2015

GENEVA ( (Issued as received) –– Two United Nations human rights experts today welcomed the holding of a referendum in Greece to decide by democratic process the path to follow to solve the Greek economic crisis without deterioration in the human rights situation.

The UN Independent Experts on the promotion of a democratic and equitable international order, Alfred de Zayas, and on human rights and international solidarity, Virginia Dandan, stressed that there is much more at stake than debt repayment obligations, echoing a warning* issued earlier this month by the UN Independent Expert on foreign debt and human rights, Juan Pablo Bohoslavsky.

“All human rights institutions and mechanisms should welcome the Greek referendum as an eloquent expression of the self-determination of the Greek people in conformity with article 1 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights and in pursuance of article 25 ICCPR on public participation. Indeed, a democratic and equitable international order requires participation by all concerned stakeholders in decision-making and respect for due process, which can best be achieved through international solidarity and a human rights approach to the solution of all problems, including financial crises.

It is disappointing that the IMF and the EU have failed to reach a solution that does not require additional retrogressive austerity measures. Some leaders have expressed dissatisfaction with the idea of holding a referendum in Greece. Why? Referenda are in the best traditions of democratic governance.

No one can expect the Prime Minister of Greece to renounce the commitments he made to the people who elected him with a clear mandate to negotiate a fair solution that does not dismantle Greek democracy and lead to further unemployment and social misery. Capitulating to an ultimatum imposing further austerity measures on the Greek population would be incompatible with the democratic trust placed on the Greek Prime Minister by the electorate.

By nature, every State has the responsibility to protect the welfare of all persons living under its jurisdiction. This encompasses fiscal and budgetary sovereignty and regulatory space which cannot be trumped by outside actors, whether States, inter-governmental organizations or creditors.

Article 103 of the UN Charter stipulates that the Charter provisions prevail over all other treaties, therefore no treaty or loan agreement can force a country to violate the civil, cultural, economic, political and social rights of its population, nor can a loan agreement negate the sovereignty of a State. Any agreement that would require such a violation of human rights and customary international law is contra bonos mores and hence null and void pursuant to Art. 53 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties.

A democratic and equitable international order requires a commercial and financial regime that facilitates the realization of all human rights. Inter-governmental organizations must foster and under no conditions hinder the achievement of the plenitude of human rights.

Foreign debt is no excuse to derogate from or violate human rights or to cause retrogression in contravention of articles 2 and 5 of the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights.

In 2013, the Independent Expert on foreign debt and human rights stated that the policy austerity measures adopted to secure additional financing from the International Monetary Fund, the European Commission and the European Central Bank had pushed the Greek economy into recession and generally undermined the enjoyment of human rights, particularly economic, social and cultural rights.

This is the moment for the international community to demonstrate solidarity with the people of Greece, to respect their democratic will as expressed in a referendum, to proactively help them out of this financial crisis, which finds a major cause in the financial meltdown of 2007-08, for which Greece bears no responsibility.

Indeed, democracy means self-determination, and self-determination often calls for referenda – also in Greece.”

 

Europe’s helping hand to Greece for five years, wrote Nobel Laureate in Economics Joseph Stiglitz the same critical day, June 30,in Huffington Post  has been  far different from what one might have expected if there was even a bit of humanity, of European solidarity.

“There was sometimes an element of neo-colonialism: the old White Europeans once again telling their former colonies what to do. More often than not, the policies didn’t work as they were supposed to. There were huge discrepancies between what the Western experts expected and what actually happened.

Somehow, one expected something better of Greece’s Eurozone “partner.” But the demands were every bit as intrusive, and the policies and models were every bit as flawed. The disparity between what the Troika thought would happen and what has emerged has been striking — and not because Greece didn’t do what it was supposed to, but because it did, and the models were very, very flawed. ”

On Sunday’s Referrendum in Greece , conludes Nobelist Stiglitz, both choices could lead to even worse social disruptions, calling, though, the Yes, “austerity and depression without end”.  But while with one of them there is some hope, he says, with the other there is not.

 

(*) Read the statement by the UN Independent Expert on foreign debt and human rights (2 June 2015) – “Greek crisis: Human rights should not stop at doors of international institutions, says UN expert”: